When disruption arrives cloaked in policy, business leaders must sharpen their lens.
In the recent bonus episode of The Insurgent Mindset, “Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble-Trump’s Tariff Armageddon,” we explore the reemergence of Trump-era tariffs as a central tool of U.S. economic strategy, what this disruption means for global business strategy, and why companies must rethink supply chains, scenario planning, and geopolitical risk.
The conversation follows recent moves by the Trump administration to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from more than 80 countries—a decision that signals a break from historical norms and thrust global businesses into a fresh wave of uncertainty.
At first glance, the approach felt undeniably insurgent: break from convention, reject the status quo, and shake up the system. But as we explore in this episode, insurgency without a clear strategy—or disciplined execution—can quickly unravel into chaos.
A Radical Shift in U.S. Trade Policy
For nearly a century, U.S. tariff policy has followed a mostly stable path—from revenue generation in the early republic, to protectionism during economic crises, to reciprocal trade as the global economy opened up post-Depression.
Now, a fourth rationale emerges: retribution.
Trump-era tariffs mark a clear departure from multilateral trade norms. They seek to punish perceived bad actors, reassert American dominance, and—perhaps most strikingly—apply pressure indiscriminately, even on allies with whom the U.S. holds trade surpluses.
From an insurgent viewpoint, it’s an unambiguous attempt to rewrite the playbook. But the question remains: to what end?
What’s the Strategy Behind Trump’s Tariffs? Intent vs. Impact
In this episode, we explore several plausible (and not-so-plausible) strategic rationales behind this disruptive policy:
- Onshoring manufacturing jobs: Theoretically, tariffs could create breathing room for domestic industries to rebuild capacity. But in reality, most low-cost manufacturing jobs are misaligned with current U.S. labor and wage expectations, and a lack of skilled labor and long lead times make large-scale reshoring highly impractical.
- Revenue generation: Tariffs do raise money, but who pays? The answer is nuanced. Importers bear the upfront cost, but it’s often passed on to U.S. consumers in higher prices—essentially, a hidden tax. If revenue were the objective, more efficient tax instruments (like a VAT) would offer cleaner policy design.
- System shock as strategy: Some argue the goal is to “shock” the global system—to force trading partners to the negotiating table under duress. While it succeeded in driving urgency, it also jeopardized decades of political goodwill, especially with allies. That may prove a high price for uncertain gains.
- Isolating China: The administration’s posture may ultimately be about pressuring China. But China is no longer the dependent trade partner it once was. As Matt points out, insurgent Chinese firms like BYD thrive globally without needing the U.S. market. In a prolonged economic standoff, the U.S. may blink first.
Strategic Agility Requires More Than Bold Moves
The central theme of this episode is the difference between insurgency and insurgency with strategic agility. Bold moves are not enough. They must be:
- Tied to a coherent strategy
- Supported by well-defined objectives
- Executed with precision
Without those elements, disruption becomes noise, and business confidence erodes. As Rondo notes, “I don’t think I’d recommend building a new plant in the U.S. right now. Instead, I might advise the opposite—diversifying my footprint to reduce exposure.”
For business leaders, this translates to an urgent need for scenario planning. The terrain has shifted. Trade policy, once a slow-moving backdrop, is now a frontline driver of business transformation. Executives must ask:
- Are we exposed to geopolitical risk in our supply chain?
- Can we pivot operations, partners, or markets quickly if conditions change?
- Do we have the strategic clarity to respond, or are we flying blind?
Manufacturing Mythology and Real Opportunity
In the episode, we also challenge the nostalgic notion that reviving U.S. manufacturing is a panacea. Yes, strategic sectors like semiconductors (e.g., through the CHIPS Act) merit investment. But broadly bringing back low-margin, labor-intensive jobs? That’s a narrative disconnected from America’s economic reality.
As Matt points out, “Why invest in averaging down U.S. wages? We’re not set up to sew Nikes. We’re good at design, branding, marketing—that’s the value America should be doubling down on.”
“In contrast,” Matt continued, “the U.S. faces a real vulnerability in shipbuilding—an industry where strategic capabilities have atrophied. Yet rather than rebuild this capability, the U.S. recently announced plans for offshoring ship hull production to South Korea. It’s a paradox: the sectors we wish to protect are neglected, while resources are spent shielding ones that deliver little long-term strategic value.”
Why Tariff Uncertainty Undermines Capital Investment and Supply Chains
For executives, the takeaway is clear: uncertainty kills investment.
The whiplash of broad, inconsistent tariffs—especially those imposed on friendly nations—undermines trust and disrupts long-term planning. Capital-intensive decisions (like opening a factory) require stability, not ninety-day tariff reprieves.
This creates a drag on innovation, hiring, and business expansion across sectors. Companies are delaying decisions, or worse, avoiding U.S. markets entirely due to unpredictable policy swings. According to Rondo, “without a clear policy direction, companies aren’t just hesitating—they’re actively rethinking their footprint. Strategic agility means building options, not betting everything on political guesswork.”
Lessons for Business Leaders: Navigate, Don’t Wait
In a volatile trade environment, strategic agility isn’t optional. It’s imperative. Business leaders must:
- Embrace scenario planning. Relying on a single strategic assumption is risky. Develop adaptable models for a range of trade and regulatory futures.
- Diversify geographic risk. Reconsider footprint and supplier concentration. What markets can you enter—or exit—to reduce exposure?
- Focus on core competencies. Don’t chase low-margin activities out of sentimentality. Invest where you have an edge, especially in high-value, high-skill sectors.
- Look beyond headlines. Not all disruption signals an opportunity. Separate meaningful policy shifts from political theater.
Final Word: Disruption With Discipline
In this episode, we’re reminded that disruption without direction is dangerous. An insurgent mindset can fuel bold business transformation—but only if paired with clarity of purpose and disciplined execution.
If you’re leading a firm through this geopolitical fog, the challenge isn’t just to move fast. It’s to move smart, with a firm grip on both your strategy and your ability to adapt.
Because in the end, it’s not just about rewriting the rules—it’s about knowing what game you’re playing.
Listen to the full conversation on YouTube, Apple, or Spotify.